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Ontario election, 2007

Posted by garym on October 11, 2007 - 9:00am

Same old, same old, the political map of Ontario not only didn't change, if anything, the colours got re-inked a little darker, just for extra measure ...

The Liberals under Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government. ... In the same election, there was a provincial referendum on whether to change from first-past-the-post to mixed member proportional representation ... This measure failed by a wide margin.
[ Ontario general election, 2007 - Wikipedia ]

And so it goes. Locally, The Globe reports Bill Murdoch miles ahead at 46.7%, with Shane Jolley thirteen points behind him, and the Liberal guy another nine points behind that, with four-fifths of the slack to the NDP. No real surprises there.

So congratulations Dalton & Co for solidly conquering the SW and NE, and kudos to Tory for pulling his funding foot out of his mouth in time to still claim all the middle ground leaving the strays in the bush to the NDP; congrats too to Bill and Shane and all for a good show, well done, and it's done now so lets get on with it, ok?

what sayeth the preachers?

Now, in the aftermath, there's a lesson in politics for you: Not one of the pollsters was even close! So much for all their "correct to five or six points nine times out of eleven except on tuesdays and alternate fridays" eh? I mean, just take a look at the comparison chart, there's the whole roster of usual suspects, narry a one of them anywhere near close to predicting the solid return of Dalton McGuinty. Not one. They have the parties in pretty much the right order, sure, but that's no surprise to anyone so far as I can tell. But the relative ratios? Not even close.

Remember that next time.



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What about MMP?

Now, about that MMP stuff ... this from the Globe:

Based on last night's results, the proposed mixed-member proportional voting system, or MMP, would have denied the Liberals their majority, reducing them to just 60 of the system's proposed 129 seats and forcing them to rely on one of the smaller parties to prop up the government.

The NDP would have won 20 seats, compared to last night's 11. The Greens, with a record 8.2 per cent of the popular vote, would have earned 10 seats under MMP, but were instead once again shut out.

Let's keep in mind here that the referendum method uses the same First Pasts The Post logic as the election itself, so, just keeping that in mind, read carefully the rhetorical slant in this veiled threat by the G&M (aka Bell Canada) to make this the new National Unity debate:

But results showed that voters were, even more strongly than polls predicted, rejecting the proposed plan to make Ontario's voting system more closely reflect the popular vote, with about 63 per cent opting to retain the current system.
[ globeandmail.com: Voters roundly reject MMP ]

So we ain't heard the last of 'em yet, seems.

Do you see my point here? Wouldn't MMP demand that I place my X in the circle to say no thank you on that issue, but also then have a secondary box of circles to say oh, btw, here's my vote to have The Globe, The Star, The Sun or The Spectator have a free vote to counter mine?? Stands to reason, don't it? I get one vote for my choice, then I get to choose the black-box faceless party who will, if my choice is in that 3%, get a Free Throw. If anything, the current election's defeat of MMP is proof enough that MMP mixed with an ill-informed electorate would be a dangerous combination. If Shane really cared more for the greening and less for the party logo, wouldn't he sign on with Bill Murdoch's crew and be their constant green-way conscience? I mean, unless you can get in to the House, nobody can dig your rap.

But first, you got to get in, and the ways to do that have been there since Confederation, probably way before.

Personally, I did read that brochure Elections Canada included in my kit, and it was really very informative, far more so than the slanted pitches I got from any single media, although, to be totally fair, what they should have done is to send us all that 700 page report ... or (more realistically) licensed a copy of it to host accessibly online somewhere. Even so, given the above prediction that we'd be stymied by a Liberal/NDP coalition, and then looking at the above mapping of the riding sidings, seriously now, would we in the blue-regions be any better off?

No, we wouldn't. It would be great news for the urban core Toronto fringe sliver along the teeny slice of the harbour shoreline, and probably best of all for the far far north and all the mega-conglomerate mining and pulp multinationals, but for the hinterland who's who that's us? Wouldn't it still be as drearily predictable as any majority rule?

sore losers

i find it hilarious that the mmp supporters are now saying an uninformed public is the reason the proposal was defeated. maybe it is just the opposite, people were aware of the pitfalls and just plain voted it down. people certainly knew about the referendum and those with any real interest found out the information they needed to make their choice. and those that are spouting that if this election was mmp the liberals would have to form a minority government...how can they know that? who knows where the 90 fptp ridings would be? who can say how people would have selected their partys? just because you elect a green locally does not mean that you didn't register your party vote with the liberals, or vice versa. who gives credence to these pundits? they are all a bunch of whiners if you ask me. if we want to get a green elected then perhaps the green party should be trying to woo mr murdoch to represent them in the next election.
kltpzyxm

ok I'm tired and should have shut off the computer a while ago

This whole thing should be debated by a forum of the majority. But the majority do not go on line and discuss in a philisophical (sp?) way. The majority do not spend a great deal of time hyper analysing and debating an issue. The majority have a well founded mistrust of anything they are told is good for them. The majority normally doesn't react and show this but they had a chance this time and did so. The MMP died not because of a better spin doctor on one side or the other it died because people think that if a group of people who aren't accountable come out in the media and say this is a good idea so vote for it, we won't. The popular paranoia is who is gonna benenfit from this and how is that gonna hurt me. Not if it is better...
John Tory jumped from the clientele of old for the PC to " lets swing from the normal working class type people who just go to work and do the things we have to do and hope nobody screws us" to cater and prostitute ouselves to the the welling of people in the the Horseshoe north up 11 who are screaming me first even though I am last. This freaked alot of the old school folks who must have thought everyone is abondoning us now, even the conservatives who always got the farmer/rural\ middle class outside of tToronto , vote and catered to or kept a status quo for them.
I see this as a wake up call from the slim majority that did vote saying wakey wakey we are still here and we are pissed.
The mmp was and the faith based school fiasco should say that in Ontario the balance on the scales is trying to change and there are many of the clan, oh bad choice of words, the old schoolers ( thats better) who don't like it, as soon as you say I think if I am gonna get elected I gotta through a carrot out to one and kick the straw out from another is poor "spinning" on someones part