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Odds are Willie is

Posted by garym on February 3, 2004 - 9:52pm

Spotted in the sidebar this evening, yet another press article that starts off just about groundhogs, but then ends with a bunch of so-called experts proclaiming supposed failed track records for the marmot prognosticators, Willie included. This latest from the Toronto Star is no exception and it really bugs me that they feel they must get in their digs even when they haven't a paw to stand on ...

Did Wiarton Willie get it right? Odds aren't good, experts say -

Toronto Star,Canada
... Environment Canada's Dave Phillips found that over-all, groundhogs were wrong nearly two thirds of the time.

His study of 30 to 40 years of weather data for 13 Canadian cities showed an equal number of cloudy and sunny days Feb. 2.

During that time, the groundhog averaged a 37 per cent accuracy rate ...

Where do they get these 'experts'?

Admittedly, I've been keeping track maybe only a third as long as Dave, but c'mon, it's really just Astronomy 101 at work here I think it's perfectly clear that Willie has an impeccable track record, far more so than Dave and his Environment Canada cronies: Willie tells us 6 weeks ... or he says it's a month and a half --- and he's never been wrong because sure enough, just like clockwork, every year, right on schedule, bam it's spring.

He's bright white, outta sight
Never wrong, he's always right ...

In fact, I'll bet Willie would be willing to indemnify his prediction! Let them put their money where their mouth is, place their bets for next year, and then let Willie amaze them all by giving his precision 42 day advance forecast! Let's just see know-it-all Dave Phillips match that hat-trick! One should think a bit before one starts throwing mud at a groundhog. Groundhogs know a thing or two about mud.

I bet Willie could throw in a few eclipse-predictions while he's at it.

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Wiarton Willie school age attandants CHALLENGE

Submitted by Laurie watkins on January 29, 2005 - 1:43am.

Laurie R.P.N

yes Garym i believe willie is right also.

I challenge all Wiarton/Olliphant/Sauble Beach parents to take their child out of school for 2 hrs and have pancakes and  see Willie,

I am a new parent to the area and My son deserves to See what his local town is All about.

I was at the collage of nurses in toronto last week to discuss Tsunami help. the nurses there

asked me about Wiarton Willie * am apperance on Feb 2

I was aut Port Elgin Hotel * looking for work

Because there are not enough nursing jobs gov,cutbacks.

Or is it on the backs of the local people whose nurses

are now in mid 40;s  .Port Elgin Hotel staff were talking about Wiarton Willie,

Come on parents bring out your children with me on Wiarton

willie day and meet and greet your neighbours

.What do you have to lose.

someone else is cooking .We just

have to show up

You're on!

Submitted by garym on February 2, 2005 - 12:52am.

Heck, no need to take the kids out of school, just bring a change of pants for them just in case the snow gets icky -- it's all over and the bets settled by the time the bell rings.

We'll be there, assuming I can pry them from their beds at 5:30 and get them dressed and down to the Meeting Place enough before 7 to have a cup o' caffeine before showtime. Oh, and I'd better budget some time to find parking within a 'hog's run of the place too.

garym: ict evangelist - musician - whatever

Hedging their bets

Submitted by garym on February 2, 2005 - 1:09am.

hee hee ... I notice Environment Canada are hedging their bets, their forecast for Wednesday's prediction morning shows a sun covered by cloud covered by snow and the totally non-committal ...

Cloudy with sunny periods. 40 percent chance of flurries in the morning.
I guess that's how civil servants keep their jobs :)

garym: ict evangelist - musician - whatever

wiarton willie says early spring

Submitted by Laurie watkins on February 2, 2005 - 10:55am.

Laurie R.P.N

Hi all My family and i just got back from Willies perdictions. it was good family fun, did anyone take my challenge and come out for fun/ my 9 yr old only missed 5 min of school.

willie says Early spring. PC John was there Our Mayer Noble was there. Pancakes till 11 . they have good food,laurie

With moments to spare ...

Submitted by garym on February 7, 2005 - 7:36pm.

I got mine into the hallways at Amabel-Sauble with three minutes to spare, but it was that last mile that was the hardest with them stopping to tell everybody about the Early Spring. You can read the full story here.

garym: ict evangelist - musician - whatever

Dave Haley flips out

Submitted by garym on February 1, 2006 - 5:16pm.

Egad. And our own Dave Haley no less, the Groundhog Empressario himself, falling head-first in mistaking mis-information for myth-information, and spouting such nonesense to the national press:

"Although between you and me," says Haley, "when you do the arithmetic, he's been right about 33 per cent of the time. You could flip a coin and do better than that."
[ via London Free Press: Wiarton Willie just hogwash? ]

Thirty-three percent!!!????

The nerve.

I challenge that figure, Dave, and I demand to see your calculations because I rather suspect you haven't "done the arithmatic" (is statistics arithmatic?). Maybe they count differently in Burlington, but I think you're just blindly parroting a pseudo-science rhetorical figure proffered by threatened and petty media and academic meteorologists who would die to have Willie's track record.

And I'm here to tell you that I have been keeping track, meticulous track, and I have done the arithmatic (statistics?) for every prediction across the past decade, and I'm here to tell you today and any day that across every last one of those ten years, Willie, Sr and Jr, have been exact and precise.

Every time, on the button, without exception: a month and a half, or six weeks, bang on. It's spooky. It's like they know ...

Frankly Dave, maybe you do have some talent for designing beautiful jubilee festival logos, but I for one don't think you've much talent for reading the fine print on your marmot prognostications.

I also note that it wasn't in your book, but in Willie Sr's autobiography (as dictated to Mother Nature herself!) Willie was quite clear on the Occult Secret of his Prognosticationary Prowess:

"Spring is a celestial event ... if people want to use my prediction as an excuse to party, that's ok by me!"
-- Wiarton Willie

So you go right ahead Dave, you and Ian Gillespie and all the rest, you go sit in your warm dry droll basements all snug and smug and you just flip your coin if that's what does it for you. As for me, I know who's got the goods on spring, and first thing tomorrow morning, crack o' dawn, me and me boys, we're a-goin' out straight to the source to get it.

Maybe get us some pancakes too, while we're waitin', like.

garym: ict evangelist - musician - whatever